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Labour market transformation.

Unemployment is a contemporary phenomenon that is one of the biggest and most difficult economic problems in the world. At the beginning of 2022, the unemployment rate was 5.5 percent. Despite this, Poland has a relatively low level of labor force participation and an early retirement age. Problems with employment may limit the current activity of companies, inhibit investment growth and, consequently, weaken the dynamics of GDP growth.

For a long time, the Polish labor market has suffered from industry deficits in employment areas focused on men. Last year, there was an increase in the pool of recruitment announcements. However, there was no increase in the number of people willing to take up employment. The CSO data shows that in 2021 an increase in the number of jobs by as much as 23.1% was recorded – a similar situation is expected this year.

The Polish labor market is more and more willing to accept workers from the East. According to Prof. Elżbieta Mączyńska from the Warsaw School of Economics, last year 500 thousand Ukrainians worked in Poland. Most of them were men employed in the construction industry, logistics and manufacturing. Unfortunately, given the current geopolitical situation, we have to prepare for the possibility of mass return of those employed to the country. It should also be remembered that the wave of refugees will not cover staff shortages. The people coming to Poland are mainly women and children.

Transformational trends.

• Diversification of the list of countries from which workers can be recruited. Employers, as a result of staff shortages, are opening up to people from Asia, Africa and South America. However, due to military operations in a neighboring country, they are afraid to come to Poland.
• Increased employment in sectors with a high proportion of women, such as education. More and more children from Ukraine start school in Poland. This will increase the demand for bilingual teachers. Possible re-modelling of employment in other areas to increase the share of women.
• Development of digitalization. Pandemic has significantly affected the work of most companies. Employers have noticed that as a result of the crisis, they are able to organize an efficient mode of work. The ongoing war will make companies use remote work tools even more willingly. In order to increase efficiency, employees will need to be trained. However, it is to be expected that one’s own initiative will be appreciated.
• Dynamization of the specialized labor market. The inevitable influx of professionals from Ukraine will lead to greater competition among specialists. However, it should be remembered that employers primarily care about the skills of recruited people. Therefore, it is so important to bet on their own development.
• Increase in voluntary turnover. Due to the pandemic, many people have realized the fragility of life. Some have come to the conclusion that their current job is unsatisfactory. The large number of offers tempts to start new recruitment processes. It is also possible that many professionals, due to lack of expected raises, left the job market.